Dissertation-Methodology Part Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Paper Methodology Part - Essay Example Information assortment strategies and apparatuses used for investigation are additionally examined. With the positivistic worldview, the accentuation is on utilizing estimation to discover the connections among realities and reasons for the marvel. This is â€Å"an fundamental component of the examination procedure under this paradigm† (Collis and Hussey, 2003, p. 57). This methodology is helpful when there is a need to direct measurable examination (Collis and Hussey, 2003, p. 56). A positivistic methodology will be utilized and the specialist will be autonomous, won't be impacted by the subject of research, and will take â€Å"the job of a goal analyst† (Saunders and Lewis and Thornhill, 2000, p. 85). The significant explanation behind this technique as a decision for the investigation is on the grounds that, quantitative specialists center around the estimation and examination of realities and causes. As per Denzin and Lincoln (refered to in Silverman 2005), â€Å"qualitative specialists figure they can draw nearer to the actor’s point of view through definite meeting and observation† (p. 10). With subjective analysts, the accentuation is on the cozy connection between the subject of research and the scientist where the worth is in the social reality and the significance of the get-together or marvel. The subjective methodology depends on the quality and profundity of information and doesn't concentrate on the â€Å"measured (whenever es timated by any means) as far as amount, sum, force, or frequency† (Denzin and Lincoln, 2000, p. 8). Likewise, as Waters (2001) clarifies, the quantitative methodology depends on â€Å"simplified portrayals of reality where genuine highlights are delineated by symbols† (p. 8). The principle advantages of picking a quantitative way to deal with this exploration are as talked about beneath. Right off the bat, this strategy permits expressing of the exploration issue in quite certain and clear terms. Additionally there is an unmistakable chance to follow the first research destinations that have been set down and to come to increasingly definitive end results. Likewise this

What Contributes to Our Perceptions of the World Free Essays

â€Å"How can social encounters shape, effect or impact out view of the world Being presented to different societies and encounters opens our brain to understanding different methods of living. On the off chance that you are presented to something else from yours, your observation would change by the manner in which your point of view Is about sure gatherings of individuals. Numerous things influence our perspective of the world emphatically and contrarily, thought I think most about the time It does It adversely. We will compose a custom paper test on What Contributes to Our Perceptions of the World? or then again any comparable point just for you Request Now In today’s world we see a great deal of societies In a single spot (states, city, schools, Jobs, and so forth. Be that as it may, inside these spots there’s separation, bigotry, had other terrible things that cause us to have a distinctively dust than others. Conceptualize in any event five antiquities that fill in as images for you, your life. Furthermore, your way of life. What do the items uncover about you and your way of life? An adding machine speaks to my affection for math. Math is a piece of my family’s culture and has become a piece of mine. Math is great. It challenges the brain. It has the ability to tackle genuine issues. It clarifies genuine perceptions, and advances to instincts more often than not. It produces precise answers. Its theoretical, yet simply goal and supreme. Its man-made, yet all the universe is displayed by math. Its morally sound. It can make craftsmanship. It can move imaginative deduction, and in that in any event, tackling issues is its very own craft. It is the manner in which I think. When inquired as to why I like Mathematics, I understood that it is all down to my character. Being a formed, unequivocal individual, I appreciate the test of inquiries with hard to accomplish answers. The ‘’ image speaks to the kind of music I tune in to. ‘’ is the official image of the band Of Mice Men. I locales to metal, rock, shouts, or elective music and the image speaks to a portion of each. A book speaks to my energy for perusing. Its about living a thousand lives through the eyes of your hero, getting so engaged with their lives, learning the exercises they learn, â€Å"meeting† the most intriguing (almost genuine) characters that keep on remaining with me long after the book is perused and back on the rack. I love getting a put and promptly being tossed Into an alternate reality. I see a book as another universe, where I can get away from the real world, an approach to loosen up myself. A green V In a ricer speaks to me being veggie lover. I have been vegan since I was conceived and It desire turned into a piece of me. I don't need to remain a veggie lover, yet my folks are. So I decide to remain vegan. The last image that speaks to me Is a couple of glasses, Since first grade I have consistently been viewed as the ‘nerd’. I generally has straight AS and the instructors cherished me. I am a year in front of my evaluation level In math, right now taking pre analytics. This made me a greater amount of the ‘nerd’ I previously was. I likewise happen to require glasses. What Contributes to Our Perceptions of the World? By Snazzy world? Gathering would change by the manner in which your point of view is about sure gatherings of thought I think most about the time it does it contrarily. In today’s world we see a great deal of societies in a single spot (states, city, schools, Jobs, and so forth ), yet inside these spots there’s separ ation, bigotry, had other awful things that cause us to have a diversely conclusion Brainstorm in any event five antiquities that fill in as images for you, your life, and your A number cruncher speaks to my affection for math. Math is a piece of my family’s culture and getting a put and quickly being tossed into an alternate reality. The most effective method to refer to What Contributes to Our Perceptions of the World?, Papers

Concept Of Public Administration Free Essays

The administration is set up to help and serve the individuals of its country. The essential focal point of the administration is to give, ensure, and serve its residents. All together for the legislature to stay responsible and to be successful, the field of We will compose a custom exposition test on Idea Of Public Administration or then again any comparative theme just for you Request Now com/open organization and-the executives focal points and-detriments of-associations as far as improving-administration conveyance and-responsibility/open organization was made to give checks to the residents to ensure the legislature is being considered responsible. Open organization is characterized as † Public organization involves government employees actualizing a predefined approach inside the bounds of an administration official structure. Open overseers guarantee that each aspect of government, state, and neighborhood open administrations are offered and executed to help make ready for what's to come. † The greatest test of being in open organization is ensuring that you are being considered responsible and making the right decision and not what is well known. Initial, one the greatest snag in open organization is administration and the board in this field. Ensuring that an open overseer is somebody who will make the right decision and reasonable is elusive. Not just that being an open director and satisfying everybody is about outlandish because of the way that everybody needs various things and plans. Next, the significant capacities in publis organization are an open manager must be reasonable, firm, and steady. An open director must be reasonable in all occurrences and can't have top choices since this make contemptibility and lost trust. This can hamper the viability of the association all together. Next, an open head must be firm. This implies various individuals are going to address and contemplate their choices that are made. The open overseer must be positive about their choice and remain by them. Next, must permits stay responsible and moral. An open overseer can't back track or accuse another person if a choice they made goes poorly. Next, an open director must be reliable. On the off chance that they do one thing in a circumstance, at that point when comparable circumstance emerges they have to keep on acting in a similar manner as they originally did. Next, one of the beiggest impediments with being in open organization is continually ensuring you are acting politically right in setting . This turns out to be troublesome on the grounds that it appears there is consistently somebody who can get irritated by all that somebody says or does. This become tricky when comes to managing open organization issues. Probably the greatest deterrent is considering the legislature responsible and having intergovernmental connections. A great deal of open organization occupations are utilized as in they consider government officials responsible for their employments and the bills they pass. They are assume to ensure the legislature is carrying out their responsibility. † Government strategy examiners are liable for making program arrangement and afterward assessing its viability. Strategy experts present relevant choices with informational collections and speculations in regards to the potential impacts of the proposed arrangement. Subsequently, they evaluate the outcomes and afterward make alterations as indicated by need. † Often times when the legislature doesn't fulfill the needs of the individuals, it is the open organization field that is considered responsible not the legislator on why these moves were permitted to make place. The greatest difficulties is applying the intergovernmental relations which is the finding of that center ground of where the individuals are fulfilled that you are considering the administration responsible and yet ensuring the legislator is cheerful and doesn't shrivel defund you or fire you since you were considering them excessively responsible. At long last, when taking a gander at open organization in general the greatest perspective isn't to get excessively concerned and overpowered by the activity given too you. Authoritative conduct assumes a significant job in settling on choices and figuring out how to pacify general society. Some of the time open chairmen are so worried about discernment they neglect to return to the nuts and bolts and adopt the thought process of an individual. Being in open organization doesn't or ought not mean a lot of formality. It ought to be tied in with offering a support to the individuals and ensuring the individuals are given a voice. Now and then, the most straightforward arrangement is human relations and understanding that the appropriate responses are consistently before us we simply have recall that we are individuals as well and rules and guidelines don't make society work. At last, when managing spending plan restranits it isn't in every case simple to achieve the fundamental objectives. All in all, open organization is an extremely requesting activity with high dangers yet incredible prizes. When taking a gander at the most concerning issues with open organization obviously with numerous issues the most significant thing is to consistently be firm, reasonable, and steady. By holding fast to these principles it considers an individual serving the individuals to consistently stay responsible and not to stretch in the event that they settled on the correct choice. The most effective method to refer to Concept Of Public Administration, Papers

Large Scale Software Development Research Paper

Huge Scale Software Development - Research Paper Example School recognition courses take three years and are offered by different universities the nation over. Most of the individuals for example 80% live in miserable neediness for example they can't spend more than one dollar for each day. Because of this most understudies can't bear to pay for their instruction costs which spread educational cost, building and advancement costs, food and providing food, cash to purchase books and finally the school uniform. Before free training was presented a large portion of the understudy dropped out of school because of absence of school charges. The administration around then was degenerate and exceptionally wasteful, these loan to an enormous crumbling of the nation instruction segment, and universal assets were likewise not accessible as giver reserves were retained because of the numerous debasement embarrassments. In January 2003, the national rainbow alliance government took power with the guarantee to carry free essential training to assist the poor uneducated understudy with attaining fundamental instruction. Free essential training was execut ed. This saw a huge enlistment of an understudy with classes which had 50 understudies presently have in excess of 100 understudies. In Nairobi, the understudy populace significantly increased. Free essential training has been beneficial. Many unlearned Kenyan have profited by it. It was astonishing that even elderly people men joined the elementary school. The impediments were anyway observable as the educator's outstanding burden became huge with the end goal that they couldn't deal with the quantity of understudies. This, as it were, loans to a decrease in the general execution of open grade schools or. The classes are regularly stuffed. In 2008 the legislature actualized free optional instruction, free auxiliary training has numerous difficulties as an understudy are as yet required to pay some sum as far as advancement expenses. Instruction in non-public schools, in contrast to the government funded school, is cutting edge with best in class PCs, pools, all around prepared instructors, understudy boarding offices among different offices. The understudy is anyway required to pay a great deal of cash to join these schools, these schools are commanded by the white collar class and high-class residents who can bear the cost of the expenses charged.

The use of decision tree analysis - Free Essay Example

The main focus of this seminar paper is on decision tree analysis and its applications in various industries. It also discusses about issues of decision making under uncertainty and risks involved in some of the projects. Statement of the problem For successful execution of a project, a project manager should be able to take right decisions under conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty. As the situation progresses from certainty to risk to uncertainty, the expected potential damage to the project increases. Various methods of decision making are employed in order to take optimal decisions. The study of decision tree analysis is done to understand its significance in assisting project managers in taking decisions. objectives of the study To gain understanding of method of decision tree analysis To grasp knowledge of role of decision tree analysis in decision making To learn about importance of decision tree analysis in assessment of projects Significance of the study The study of this seminar paper assists in learning about decision tree analysis role of decision tree analysis in decision making applications of decision tree analysis in various industries issues of decision making under uncertainty and risks involved in some of the projects Scope and Limitations of the study Scope The scope of the study is learning about decision tree analysis, its role in decision making, its applications in various industries and the issues of decision making under uncertainty and risks involved in some of the projects. limitations This study does not include techniques of decision making under certainty. It does not provide in-depth knowledge of all techniques of decision making under uncertainty and risk. Review of literature Basics of decision tree analysis Decision tree is a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. Its common application is in operations research, especially in decision analysis, for identifying a strategy to attain an objective. Other applications include its use as a descriptive means for calculating conditional probabilities. It acts as visual tool where the expected values (or expected utility) of competing alternatives are calculated and guides in choosing the best alternative. Decision trees depict the sequence of interrelated decisions and the expected results of making choice among alternatives. When a decision is to be made, there are generally more than one choices or options. The available choices are depicted in tree form starting at the left with the risk decision branching out to the right with possible outcomes. Decision trees are usually used for risk events associated with time or cost. A decision tree c onsists of 3 types of nodes:- 1. Decision nodes which are commonly represented by squares 2. Chance nodes which are represented by circles 3. End nodes which are represented by triangles Decision tree is drawn from left to right and has splitting paths but no converging paths. Therefore, in cases of elaborate future events, it is often difficult to draw manually. Nowadays various solutions and softwares are provided by many companies for drawing decision trees, analyzing the results and defining the best alternative amongst the available choices. Steps in decision tree analysis Main steps in decision tree analysis are as follows: 1. Identifying the problem and alternatives To understand the problem and develop alternatives, it is necessary to acquire information from different sources like marketing research, economic forecasting, financial analysis, etc. As the decision situation unfolds, various alternatives may arise which are to be identified. There would also be kinds of uncertainties in terms of market size, market share, prices, cost structure, availability of raw material and power, governmental regulation. Technological change, competition, etc. Recognising that risk and uncertainty are inherent characteristics of investment projects, persons involved in analyzing the situation must be encouraged to express freely their doubts, uncertainties, and reservation and motivated to suggest contingency plans and identify promising opportunities in the emerging environment. 2. Delineating the decision tree The decision tree represents the anat omy of decision situation. It illustrates decision points along with the alternative options available for experimentation and action at these decision points chance points where outcomes are dependent on a chance process and the likely outcomes at these points This decision tree diagrammatically reflects the nature of decision situation in terms of alternative courses of action and chance outcomes which have been identified in the first step of the analysis. If myriad possible future events and decisions are considered, it can become very complex and cumbersome. As a result, it would not be a useful tool of analysis. If many elaborate events are taken into account then it may obscure the critical issues. Hence it is necessary to simplify the decision tree so that focus can be given on major future alternatives. 3. Specifying probabilities and monetary outcomes After delineating the decision tree, probabilities corresponding with each of the possible outcomes at va rious chance points and monetary value of each combination of decision alternative and chance outcome have to be gathered. The probabilities of various outcomes can be defined objectively. For instance, based on objective historical data the probability of good monsoon can be defined. On the other hand, probabilities for real life outcomes are somewhat difficult and cannot be obtained. For example, one cannot determine the probabilities for success of a new automobile launch. These have to be defined subjectively and based on experience, judgment, understanding of informed executives and their intuition. Also, it is difficult to assess cash flows corresponding to these outcomes. So again judgment of experts helps in defining these cash flows. 4. Evaluating various decision alternatives The final step in decision tree analysis includes evaluation of various alternatives. This can be done as follows: Starting with the right- hand end of the tree and then we calculate the e xpected monetary value at various chance points that come first as we proceed leftward. Given the expected monetary values of chance points in step 1, evaluate the alternatives at the final stage decision points in terms of their expected monetary values. At each of the final stage decision points, select the alternative which has the highest expected monetary value and truncate the other alternatives. Each decision point is assigned a value equal to the expected monetary value of the alternative selected at that decision point. Proceed backward (leftward) in the same manner, calculating the expected monetary value at chance points, selecting the decision alternative which has the highest expected monetary value at various decision points, truncating inferior decision alternatives, and assigning values to decision points, till the first decision point is reached. Advantages Amongst decision support tools, decision trees have several advantages: Easy to interpret and understand With availability of little hard data this method helps in generating important insights Result provided by a model/ software can be easily explained Can be used in combination with other decision techniques Example Decision trees can be used to optimize an investment portfolio. The following example shows a portfolio of 7 investment options (projects). The organization has $10,000,000 available for the total investment. Bold lines mark the best selection 1, 3, 5, 6, and 7, which will cost $9,750,000 and create a payoff of 16,175,000. All other combinations would either exceed the budget or yield a lower payoff. Decision Making Tools: Decision Tree Analysis and EMV Decision Tree Analysis In decision tree analysis, a problem is depicted as a diagram which displays all possible acts, events, and payoffs (outcomes) needed to make choices at different poin ts over a period of time. Example of Decision Tree Analysis: A Manufacturing Proposal The company is assessing a new product development proposal. The cost of the development project is $500,000. The probability of successful development is projected to be 70%. If the development is unsuccessful, the project will be terminated. If it is successful, the manufacturer must then decide whether to begin manufacturing the product on a new production line or a modified production line. If the demand for the new product is high, the incremental revenue for a new production line is $1,200,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $850,000. If the demand is low, the incremental revenue for the new production line is $700,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $150,000. All of these incremental revenue values are gross figures, i.e., before subtracting the $500,000 development cost, $300,000 for the new production line and $100,000 for the modified production line. The probability of high demand is estimated as 40%, and of low demand as 60%. The development of a decision tree is a multi step process. The first step is to structure the problem using a method called decomposition, similar to the method used in the development of a work breakdown structure. This step enables the decision-maker to break a complex problem down into a series of simpler, more individually manageable problems, graphically displayed in a type of flow diagram called a decision tree. These are the symbols commonly used: The second step requires the payoff values to be developed for each end-position on the decision tree. These values will be in terms of the net gain or loss for each unique branch of the diagram. The net gain/loss will be revenue less expenditure. If the decision to not develop is made, the payoff is $0. If the product development is unsuccessful, the payoff is $500,000. If the development is successful, the decis ion is to build a new production line (NPL) or modify an existing production line (MPL). The payoff for the NPL high demand is ($ 1,200,000 $500,000 development cost -$300,000 build cost) or $400,000. For a low demand, the payoff is ($700,000 $500,000 development cost -$300,000 build cost) or -$100,000. The payoff for the MPL high demand is ($850,000 -$500,000 development cost $100,000 build cost) or $250,000. For a low demand, the payoff is ($720,000- $500,000 development cost $100,000 build cost) or $120,000. The third step is to assess the probability of occurrence for each outcome: Development Successful = 70% NPL High Demand = 40% MPL High Demand = 40% Development Unsuccessful = 30% NPL Low Demand = 60% MPL Low Demand = 60% Probability Totals* 100% 100% 100% *Probabilities must always equal 100%, of course. The fourth step is referred to as the roll-back and it involves calculating expected monetary values (EMV) for each alternative course of action payoff . The calculation is (probability X payoff) = EMV This is accomplished by working from the end points (right hand side) of the decision tree and folding it back towards the start (left hand side) choosing at each decision point the course of action with the highest expected monetary value (EMV). Decision D2: New Production Line vs. Modified Production Line high demand + low demand = EMV high demand + low demand = EMV (4 0% X $400,000) + (60%X -$100,000) (40% X $250,000)+(60% X $120,000) $100,000 $172,000 Decision Point 2 Decision: Modified Production Line with an EMV of $172,000 Decision 1: Develop or Do Not Develop Development Successful + Development Unsuccessful (70% X $172,000) (30% x (- $500,000)) $120,400 + (-$150,000) Decision Point 1 EMV=(-$29,600) Decision: DO NOT DEVELOP the product because the expected value is a negative number. When doing a decision tree analysis, any amount greater than zero signifies a positive decision. This too l is also very useful when there are multiple cases that need to be compared. The one with the highest payoff should be picked. Example The project manager can use decision tree analysis when a decision involves a series of several interrelated decisions. The project manager computes the Expected Monetary value (EMV) of all strategies and chooses the strategy with the highest EMV. Assume that the project manager has four alternative strategies, S1, S2, S3, and S4. The resultant values for each strategy at different probability levels are R1, R2, and R3. Assume that the probability of occurrence of these results is 0.5, 0.2 and 0.3. The payoff matrix for this problem is given in table 1. Table 1: Payoff Matrix R1 R2 R3 S1 13 10 9 S2 11 10 8 S3 10 12 11 S4 8 11 10 The project manager can also represent this problem as a decision tree. Figure: 1 depicts the decision tree for the given problem. The project manager finally selects strategy S1 as it has the highest expected value. Figure 1 EMV (A) = 0.5 (13) + 0.2(10) + 0.3(9) = 11.2 EMV (B) = 0.5 (11) + 0.2(10) + 0.3(8) = 9.9 EMV (C) = 0.5(10) + 0.2(12) + 0.3(11) = 9.8 EMV (D) = 0.5(8) +0.2(11) + 0.3(10) = 9.2 Case study R and D management, by its very nature, is characterized by uncertainty since effective R and D requires a complex interaction of variables. It is important to balance strategic management (allocate resources and do the right R and D) with operational management (execution of projects) and at the same time take into account issues of people management (leadership, motivation, organisation and teamwork) (Menke, 1994). The strategic aspect of R and D management alone requires the resolution of some very important questions, namely Whether we have the right budget of R and D? Whether allocation is done to right business and technology areas? Whether there is a right balance of risk and return; of incremental vs. innovation; of long- and short-term projects; of research vs. development? Are we working on the right projects and programmes with the right effort? It is clear that for success in R and D it is critical to determine what is right for the particular company. Th e normal process for doing this is through the development of a technology strategy. In practice, the approach used will be that which best fits the operating method of the company but, as Braunstein (1994) has pointed out, the approach is less important than the output, which has to link the corporate goals and strategy to the companys major functional units. Having defined what the business objectives should be for the R and D programme and the overall strategic framework that will define the technology plan, it is then possible to move on to what is probably one of the most problematic parts of technology management, the selection of individual R and D programmes. There is a comprehensive literature of potential methods which can be used (Baker and Pound, 1964; Gear et al., 1971; Souder, 1978). Many of these compare projects with different distributions of possible outcomes and risk, often using relatively complex quantitative methods. There are a number of interdependencies t hat have to come good before the project finally produces value for the company and it has been argued (Morris et al., 1991) that because many of the major decisions (and many sub-decisions at intermediate milestones) can be taken singly, the overall process is less risky that might initially be thought. Not surprisingly, therefore, Morris goes on to propose that, when choosing R and D projects, there is merit in going for long shots since this is effectively the purchase of options which can be dropped later if the project does not look like bearing fruit. Moreover, the higher risk projects (almost by definition) tend to be the ones that have the highest payback if they are successful (see also Kester, 1984). 2. Decision making under uncertainty Uncertainty in a business situation is often expressed verbally in terms such as it is likely, it is probable, the chances are, possibly, etc. This is not always very helpful because the words themselves are only useful when they convey the same meaning to all parties. It is clear that different people have different perceptions of the everyday expressions which are often used to describe uncertainty. Uncertainty exists if an action can lead to several possible outcomes and an essential, but, challenging aspect of R and D management is to identify the likelihood or probability that these outcomes or events will occur. There are two main interpretations of probability. The first is grounded in the estimation of the probability of an event in terms of relative frequency with which the event has occurred in the past and is usually referred to as objective probability. The second views probability as being the extent of an individuals or groups belief in the occurrence of an event a nd is usually termed subjective probability. Subjective probability estimates are often included in the models suggested as useful for project selection in R and D planning. Such probabilities might be derived from past experience with similar research projects plus any special features that make the current effort unique or different and alter the past up or down from this base line. A number of tools have been proposed to help in the process of generating probabilities, though they are by no means perfect. Schroder (1975) draws attention to some of the problems that occur in deriving probabilities of technical success and concludes that subjective probabilities are a rather unreliable predictor of the actual outcome of individual success. He proposes a number of reasons for this which he categorises as either intentional or unintentional (conscious biasing). To decrease the unintentional errors he suggests the following actions: ensure that risk assessors have sufficient exp ertise in their field and a comprehension of subjective probabilities. improve the availability of information and particularly documentation. fully exploit information systems and attempt to utilize incentive systems which reward accuracy and reliability. analyse past performance in assessing probabilities to provide valuable insight into potential improvements. utilise well-tried approaches to help in the subjective probability assessment. It is evident, however, that some confidence levels need to be established and perhaps the most obvious way of achieving this is by the collation over a period of time, of how prior assessments have compared with reality. For this to have genuine value will require a comparison of the assumptions that have been made at each assessment. 3. The use of financial methods for risk analysis Benefit/cost ratios have been popular for some time, since they are simple and are an attempt to understand the potential gain for the effort required. In performing even a simple benefit/cost analysis, it is necessary for the decision-maker to provide quantitative information in order to ascribe a value to a project. When this has been done, the project can be viewed as a relatively simple financial investment and therefore subject to more standard financial investment tools. The danger of this is that it gives no consideration to the fact that technical programmes are often aimed at a wide range of strategic objectives, a point made by Mitchell and Hamilton (1988) who made a separation into: exploratory/fundamental type work which is aimed primarily towards the concept of knowledge building. For this type of work, the business impact of which is often poorly defined and wide ranging and here R and D is often best considered as a necessary cost of business. well understoo d technical programmes usually associated with incremental improvements of existing products which can be clearly defined. Here the R and D can be seen as an investment and treated accordingly. As usual with two extremes, the difficult part is the mid-ground where neither approach is particularly suitable. Authors have attempted to use techniques borrowed from the financial community which often has to deal with uncertainty. Risk analysis is a key area in financial markets and several of the approaches used in financial analysis are also found in the R and D management area; for example, decision trees and Monte Carlo analysis. Decision trees have been discussed in many papers in terms of the principle and method of construction and use. They are relatively old technology in decision analysis terms, but have found wide use in both the literature and also in industry (Magee, 1964; Raiffa, 1968; Thomas, 1972). They can help in: Understanding the basic outline of the projec t path from inception to completion. The construction of the decision tree can help the project evaluator, project team and project reviewers to understand the likely events that that will have to be developed as the project progresses. It can also help to reduce/avoid management surprises in downstream activities. Understanding of probabilities of success along the project path. Once the tree has been constructed a normal process is then to roll back the tree and input probability success factors at event nodes. Developing project gates. Key project milestones can be readily seen such that project review groups can understand critical project phases, develop appropriate gates for the project for the project to pass through or be reconsidered. Facilitating the calculation of revised probabilities of success as the project passes through various development stages. The actual construction of a decision tree can be a time consuming process for each project but it can be re garded as a useful investment in time either by the project evaluator(s), the project team itself or perhaps a project review group. The time spent in consideration of the project is likely to be a worthwhile investment since it aids the above processes, helps in the resource decision and provides a potential communication route for the team, business management and others. In terms of the construction of a decision tree, Phillips (1980) suggests that the decision tree is most usefully used as part of a total decision analysis using a 10 step construction process as shown below: 1. Recognition that a decision problem exists. 2. Structure the decision problem. 3. Describe the consequences. 4. Specify the criteria. 5. Evaluate the consequences for each criterion. 6. Assess weights for the criteria. 7. Determine utilities of consequences. 8. Assess probabilities. 9. Apply expected utility principle. 10. Carry out sensitivity analysis. Being able to layo ut on a single sheet of paper the key elements of a project can prove useful in project selection, project management and even the termination decision. Some examples of potential utility can be seen from Fig. 1. This was generated from consultation with the portfolio manager in the company which we use as a case study later in this paper and a typical macro view of a generic research project for a new molecule. It highlights both the likely path, key decision points and also potential regrets along the way (primarily research expense). Decision trees do have some weaknesses associated with their use including the fact that they are quite difficult to draw on normal PC graphics programs (e.g., FreelanceTM and PowerpointTM ) which may not help the communication process. Also, they are not ideal for parallel events that happen over a period of time. An example of this would be middle stages of the tree developed in the previous diagram where toxicology, capability assessments/en gineering and economics are all events that would normally occur over a similar period of time and would often be run together. However, the thinking process that a decision tree naturally leads a reviewer through supports better project planning by increased understanding of the overall path that a project is likely to progress along. As well as the project approval phase, decision trees may prove even more useful in the project phase since they help in the process of: Ensuring that the project team understands the risks and challenges associated with the project. Provides a useful communication process for both internal team communication and also communication from the team to business and technology management. Helps the team to understand why a project might be nearing a termination decision and may in fact help in the process of reducing the emotion associated with a project termination decision Provides a logical layout for key decision points and project reviews. To some extent this is taken care of in the new project methodology by the stage-gate process. Provides a potential mechanism to enable recalculation of the probability of success, p(t), as any given project progresses along its development path. Potentially aids the easier overlay of time and may in fact be a useful project management tool working in partnership with GANTT charts.

Willy Loman And His American Dream - Free Essay Example

Death of a Salesman In earlier years the American dream is what everyone lived for. So many get rich schemes to come out on top was the plan. Like the music industry with Joe Jackson, his American dream was his kids and the music industry. He fought so hard and worked even harder for his children to come out on top. It worked and now his last name is the biggest household name when it comes to music. Although in Death of a Salesman, by Arthur Miller, he conveys a message about trying to secure the American dream through Willy Loman using his family as a pawn in his plans, and also losing his sanity while doing so, which eventually led to Willyrs demise. Arthur Miller attended the University of Michigan, where he began writing plays as a young freshman and also studied Greek literature and earned a bachelorrs degree in English in 1938 (Built Like Adonises). His many works of fiction during a career that lasted almost seventy years novels, plays, and short stories are justly revered for their ironic and multilayered meanings (Built Like Adonises) . Miller gives him some knowledge of western literature and a few of its primal stories and themes (Built Like Adonises). In Death of a Salesman Willy Loman goes throughout the play zoning in and out of reality and the real world. He is having the fight of his life because he wants to live the American Dream, but it is truly breaking his family apart. His two sons Biff and Happy, and also his wife is up for an intense ride. More importantly Biff is getting the most problems from his father, because he was supposed to be the meal ticket for the family. Willy thought of as many get rich schemes as he can because he wanted to be rich like his brother. Biff is the only one that had something going for his self. In one of the flashbacks you can see Biff in his prime as the high school football star. In this particular flashback, Biff is seen throwing the ball around with his father and brother. The neighbor comes out to let Biff know, that he needs to study because he is on the brink of failing math. Biff would not listen and continued to play out in the yard. Biff not only was failing classes, he also was s tealing (Miller, Arthur). Eventually Willy goes on a trip to sale as usual, but he ends up in his hotel room with his mistress. Biff ended up coming to meet his father, so they could meet with the teacher about Biffrs failing grades. After short conversation Biff finds out that there is another woman there because she reveals herself. Willy kicks the mistress out of the hotel room and gives her two pairs of stockings that is supposed to be for his wife. The son is so hurt by the actions of his dad, that they get into a big fight in the middle of the room, and then Biff storms off. His football career is ruined, because he fails the class (Miller, Arthur). This little encounter puts a strain on the father son duo, because of how Willy continues to mistreat his wife even after being caught in the act. He is trying so hard to be something he is not, by living a double life wasting money on women instead of providing for his family. The family is already behind on bills, and Willy isnt really making any sales. Later on in the story though, Willy tries to use Biff again to make money since he is having trouble. Willy gets so down that it shows his previous attempts at trying to take his own life. His wife is hurt because no matter how hard she tries to cater to Willy and make him happy things just get worse and worse. Linda tries to be a peacemaker for all of the boys, but she just cant seem to get them to get along which is slowly tearing the family apart. Happy does not really seem to care for Willy because Biff is the favorite child, and that alone causes more rift in the Loman family. Life in the 1940rs was not as we see times of today. It was not until the later 40rs when things were popping again. Door-to-door salespeople has to contend with the up and coming world of great technology. People had all kind of big dreams for themselves and their families. Some were brought to fruition and some died before being seen to the end. Door to door salesman were usually the head of their households and their income was the only one they had, so the name of their game was to hustle to out sale the other salesmen with their charisma. Willy put himself on a very high pedestal and that pedestal did come crumbling down. However, Willy was failing as a great salesman and Mr. Miller had Willy living in a cloud that was really unsuccessful. Knowing Willy was the breadwinner of his household mad Miller look bad(Miller, Arthur). Willy has a very understanding and patient wife which in these days has shenanigans would not be tolerated by wives of today. Throughout the entire play he would go back and forth in time and it leaves a lot to your thought process. It takes a lot to make a dream come true and with Willyrs thought process it makes it even harder to accomplish the dreams he had set forth for his boys, Biff and Happy. Selling merchandise these days has fierce competition compared to the 1940rs and 1950rs. They kind of remind me of Edith and Archie Bunker and their meager way of living. Willy recalled the death of a real salesman as he called it when an 84-year-old salesman/colleague could pick up a phone and make a call and get sales in 31 states while wearing his greenhouse slippers and thatrs the way he died in his green velvet slippers probably making a call to one of his clients (Miller, Arthur). Willy wanted his sons to be successful in whatever they did but he was never satisfied with the careers that they had chosen and always complained about it. He never complimented them on anything. He also complained about how his wife Linda did everything. I guess Willy was the kind of man that wanted everything to be perfect and his familyrs life was far from perfect. At the end of the story, Biff Loman he former all-star quarterback and all-around golden boy of his senior class, announces much the same intentions (All I want is Out There). After the death of his father, Biff will say goodbye once and for all to the crowded, noisy city that he never loved, never wanted to live in or work in as a grown man (All I want is Out There). He tried for years to escape the urban East and all that it represents to him, but he could not because of his fatherrs dreams (All I want is out). In the end, Biff will go back to Texas, this time for good, and once he is out there amid the horses, the cattle, the freedom, and the big skies, he will finally live out the kind of life† a physically demanding one† that he has desired ever since he left his Brooklyn high school all those years before (Miller, Arthur).

How Can An Ledc Sustain Its Business Endeavours In A Morally

How can an LEDC sustain its business endeavours in a morally ethical way? This essay will examine the moral ethical principles of an LEDC and the perspective its entrepreneurial endeavours and the difficulties in applying sustainable and ethical business practices. An LEDC is an abbreviation for (less economically developed country. An LED is a country that lacks in financial resources that makes it a struggle in any sustainable economic growth. The backbone of an LEDC relies on its agriculture and civilian labour as opposed to industrial organisations. The effects of this requires the country to produce more raw materials. Some qualities of an LEDC are, inadequate national health, infant mortality, shorter life expectancy, and lower†¦show more content†¦Lastly, this essay will examine the foreign relations of the country and its trades of import and export with producing and consuming nations on its outside affiliations. MAIN BODY This essay will begin by examining the government of Bhutan and its direction of improving the economic structure of its country for a sustainable future. Bhutan is a country located on the southern slopes of the eastern Himalayas. It is a country that is grappling with modernity and development. Around thirty years ago, Bhutan was completely isolated. With that span of years, the country is now known too much of the outside world. Recently elected Prime Minister, Tshering Tobgay, of the country Bhutan has been a prominent figure of the country. Tobgay believes that acting on issues like youth employment, corruption, and the national debt is more necessary than focusing solely on the GHN. Tobgay additionally concentrates on stopping corruption in Bhutan’s government, and interacting with the Bhutanese population. Tshering Tobgay declared that the country is additionally carbon negative rather than simply carbon neutral. The Royal government of Bhutan is comprised of 10 minist ries which work in bringing the goal of Gross National Happiness closer to reality. Gross National Happiness is a term originated by his majesty the fourth king of Bhutan, Jigme Singye Wangchuck, within the nineteenth seventies. The idea implies that property